Avalanche monitoring in the ERA of climate change for mountain regions with diverse conditions

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess the regional manifestations of climate change and to develop effective automated avalanche monitoring systems under these conditions, considering regional specifics and current climate challenges. The research methodology focuses on the analysis of climate and avalanche conditions in two contrasting mountain regions: the East Kazakhstan region and the foothills of the Main Caucasian Ridge (Krasnaya Polyana resort area). for Eastern Kazakhstan, meteorological data and records of spontaneous avalanches spanning 23 years were analyzed. For the Krasnaya Polyana resort area, meteorological data from regional weather stations covering 44 winter seasons and from the resort’s own weather stations covering 17 seasons were examined. The study employs methods of mathematical statistics and modeling commonly used in modern avalanche monitoring. The results include the processing of long-term observational data, modeling of climate change trends and their relationship to avalanche activity in the studied regions, as well as research on the development and operation of avalanche monitoring systems adapted to these conditions. Conclusions based on the results show that, despite climatic and geographical differences, similar approaches can be applied to the design and operation of avalanche monitoring systems. The practical significance of the research lies in its contribution to the development of avalanche warning systems for other mountainous regions in the context of climate change.