The economic impacts of climate change on Egypt's agriculture sector based on the random forest algorithm

Abstract

This study employs the Random Forest algorithm to analyze the relationship between agricultural added value in Egypt, climate change, and fertilizer inputs. It also investigates the impact of poverty on carbon dioxide emissions, focusing on the connection between environmental sustainability and economic development. The results indicate that fertilizer inputs play a dominant role in predicting agricultural value-added: nitrogen (43.8%), phosphate (32.3%), and potash (20.6%), while climate change accounts for only 3.3%. This suggests that Egypt’s agriculture has not yet been significantly affected by climate change. Additionally, the analysis of poverty and emissions reveals that poverty reduction, while improving living standards, may simultaneously increase energy consumption and emissions, posing challenges for sustainable development. The study concludes that agricultural productivity in Egypt is currently more influenced by fertilizer use than by climate change. Furthermore, addressing poverty without implementing appropriate environmental safeguards could exacerbate carbon emissions. Therefore, achieving sustainability requires a balanced approach to poverty reduction and environmental conservation. The findings offer practical insights for policymakers, including environmental advocates and economists. They highlight the importance of enacting regulations that promote the use of green technologies and sustainable agricultural practices, while designing poverty reduction strategies aligned with long-term environmental sustainability. These measures will help reconcile economic growth with environmental conservation.